A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
